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E46 M3
02-11-2003, 02:40 PM
Sorry, but this was getting buried, and I wanted to revisit it:

You claim in <a href="http://forums.roadfly.org/bmw/forums/e46m3/forum.php?postid=898499">this post</a> that the depreciation numbers for an M3 will be:

<i>A typical depreciation curve would be on the order of 100%, 88%, 78%, 70%, 64%, 60% as you roll through years 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5
respectively. </i>

So, your 2, 3, 4, 5 year depreciation numbers are:
78%, 70%, 64%, 60%

Now, here are the *real* depreciation numbers for an 2003 M3 coupe (from to link below):

years 2, 3, 4, 5:
68%, 60%, 52%, 45%

You're off by at least 10% in every case.

And please don't list the asking prices in the classifieds as your data point. Asking price is normally not the same as actual selling price.

StoneWalk
02-11-2003, 02:49 PM
You'd first need to address if those residual values are in Wholesale, retail or private party terms.

Then you'd need to synch them up with one of your favorite sources, Edmunds, which I agree says a zero-option 2001 M3 runs $35.3k private party retail after 2 years. That car cost $46k new (zero options), and thus is at 76.7% of original value - very much in line with my numbers (78%), and in violent conflict with yours which say it should be at 68%.

What we are probably dealing with is that your source looks at dealer trade in values, while I am generally looking at private party value, and those two are quite a bit apart.

And none of this really matters to my _original_ point, that the person claiming the M3 has wildly bad depreciation is wrong. Against its peers, however you wish to define the M3 depreciation curve, it's very much in the upper range of depreciation values - better than almost everything out there except a couple of Mercedes and Porche models.

That was the point I was making. I brought up some ballpark depreciation numbers (which we can debate forever) and backed them up with current used car sales as supporting evidence.

I agree, at 5 years if you just trade in your M3 at the dealer, you will likely see less than 50%. If you keep it in good shape, and sell it private party to someone who knows what he's looking at, you will probably see a bit more than 50%. We good?
<br>
StoneWalk, Ventura California
<img src="http://members.roadfly.com/stonewalk/M3lagunaSeca2a.jpg">

2003_M3
02-11-2003, 02:59 PM
through chase for an '03 M3 coupe. This number matches stonewalks estimates of 70% for 3 yrs almost exactly. Most banks will use lower depreciation to force you to buy at the end and increase your payments during the life of the lease. If you lease an M3 and agree to a Residual of 60% for a 36 month lease then you are getting ripped off plain and simple.

CBsaksiri
02-11-2003, 03:03 PM
<br>
<B>CBsaksiri</B> Sunnyvale, CA
<A HREF="http://members.roadfly.org/cbsaksiri"><IMG SRC="http://members.roadfly.org/saksiri99/sig_sm.JPG" border=0></A>

century...911's don't even lease with that.
02-11-2003, 03:30 PM

better curves out there...(m)
02-11-2003, 03:31 PM
...but where we differ is that imo, it's not as good as your numbers would suggest. Remember, those are end-of-year numbers, *and* the selling prices are usually lower than the asking prices.

But even if the M3's numbers are a bit higher than what they're projecting right now, it wouldn't surprise me: it's still a relatively new car, and demand is still fairly high (although the luxo/sport market is definitely down from when the car was introduced). I expect, though, that as more are produced and as more used examples hit the market, we'll see prices much more in line with those residual curves. They're normally fairly accurate.

2003_M3
02-11-2003, 03:47 PM
from october through at least the end of december 2002 (I picked up my car on 12/14)- anyone could have had that deal during that time. However, I admit that I haven't followed the rates since then.

houses and cars! Are their rates online?
02-11-2003, 07:30 PM


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